Election season always seems to start earlier and earlier.
New data from Focal Data HQ shows us the likely 2028 matchup if primary elections were held today.
Kamala Harris leads both Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
📊 2028 National Democratic Primary
🟦 Harris 39%
🟦 Newsom 21%
🟦 AOC 10%
🟦 Buttigieg 7%
🟦 Shapiro 7%
🟦 Kelly 6%
🟦 Whitmer 4%
🟦 Pritzker 3%
🟦 Beshear 1%
🟦 Ossoff 1%
——
Hypothetical RCV round
🟦 Kamala Harris 56%
🟦 Gavin Newsom 44%@focaldataHQ | 2/10 | 1,148 pic.twitter.com/rSsCBBzLu4— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 13, 2026
On the Republican side, JD Vance dominates with 52%.
Marco Rubio is all the way down to 9%.
📊 2028 National Republican Primary
🟥 Vance 52%
🟥 Trump Jr 14%
🟥 Rubio 9%
🟥 DeSantis 8%
🟥 RFK Jr 6%
🟥 Vivek 4%
🟥 Haley 3%
🟥 Cruz 3%
🟥 Hawley 1%
🟥 Youngkin 0%
——
Hypothetical RCV round
🟥 JD Vance 78%
🟥 Trump Jr 22%@focaldataHQ | 2/10 | n=1,148 https://t.co/0oJ7ox2hVn pic.twitter.com/rDKVCZ3eT9— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 13, 2026
Main Takeaways:
This poll is great news for JD Vance. This poll shows what is really an insurmountable lead for everyone below.
Marco Rubio has been great in this administration but GOP voters don’t hold him in as high regard as JD Vance when it comes to who comes next.
Ron DeSantis running against Trump likely has doomed his chances in the primary.
The Democrat side of this is far more interesting.
Kamala Harris leading shouldn’t shock anyone. For Democrats she is currently the face of resistance to Trump because she was the Democrat candidate in 2024. She gets all the upside from Democrats while all the downside goes to Joe Biden.
Despite that, I don’t think this shows us much. History has shown us that Kamala Harris does worse the longer election cycles go on – not better.
Here is the evidence.
Kamala Harris was viewed as the Democrat frontrunner in 2020.
She fell apart quickly in that race and Joe Biden won the nomination.
In 2024, (if you believe the polls) she started with a polling lead and ended up losing the election and popular vote.
Does this mean she can’t win?
Of course, not.
What it means is that Gavin Newsom and AOC are both strong candidates to keep your eye on if Kamala Harris’ campaign falls apart again.
