All eyes are on Iran.
Trump has made it clear that he wants a deal.
New reporting alleges the United States is preparing for military operations in the country.
The US military is preparing for the possibility of a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran if President Trump orders an attack on the country, Reuters has reported, as the US continues to build up its forces in the region.
The report, which cited two unnamed US officials, said a US attack on Iran could lead to a far more serious conflict than the two countries have seen before. All signs indicate that Iran wouldn’t hold back or give the US notice in advance of a counterattack as it did during the 12-Day War after the US bombed its nuclear facilities…
…The New York Times reported that Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran, including strikes on its nuclear facilities, attacks meant to hurt its ability to launch missiles, and even the possibility of sending US commandos into the country. US officials acknowledged to the Times that taking out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be much more difficult than the attack on Venezuela to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro.
A few things are important to understand with reporting like this.
-Leaks like this are often used as a way to do diplomacy through leaks. The Trump administration wants Iran to believe they are willing to go all out and that all options are on the table.
-Leaks like this can also be those within the administration trying to shift the policies of the administration. If they leak out that the United States is preparing for war maybe they can create concern and backlash and try and change where the administration is heading.
It is for both of these reasons that reporting like this should be taken with a grain of salt. We should use history to predict what comes next.
Some things we know:
-Donald Trump has no interest in getting dragged into conflicts long term. Trump has shown a clear dedication to ensuring America stays out of conflicts long term. They arrested Maduro but left the regime in charge because Trump is not interested in redoing the failures of the Iraq war.
-Last time Trump took action against Iran he did it flawlessly. None of the critics’ predictions came to pass. He upheld US interests without the downsides of long term conflict.
My prediction on this is that neither foreign policy side will be fully happy.
The isolationists won’t be happy because Trump took action. They are still yet to apologize for last time struck Iran.
The Neo-cons won’t be happy because Trump didn’t go for regime change.
This is just a prediction and if we are wrong we will bring you that as well.
If Trump does go the regime change route it is would mean he really felt no other options were on the table.
